should i trust the chance calculator if my chances have changed a lot recently?Answered
I’m really confused about how the collegevine chancing is working now, and idk whether I should trust it or not…. Literally every school on my list has changed chances. My reaches went up from 10-15% to 30-40% and my safeties/targets went down from 80-90% to 70%. My hard targets also decreased from 50% to 40ish%. This doesn’t make sense since literally nothing has changed since I input this info, yet a couple of weeks ago w/ my SAT and GPA being the same as they are now my chances at my top schools were 15% (Ivys) but now they’re 30-40%, and a school that was a safety for me (BC) is now a target of 65%. What do I believe anymore??
I know it’s not a big deal cause there are obviously a lot of other factors that tie into my application, and all I can do is prepare my hardest and hope for the best. At the same time though, it’s unsettling. Has this happened to you guys too?
Hey @crsgo0422 thanks for asking this question and for contributing to the forum so frequently! We appreciate it. It's important to know that we constantly adjust the chancing engine, and these latest chances you received are just what’s reflected in the data. We recognize and understand that seeing your chances change randomly can be a bit confusing and we're working on better messaging so when this does happen it will be more clearly communicated and you'll have a better understanding on why they did change.
So not to me but I’ve heard others ask it. The best advice I have is 1: it’s an algorithm and is thus not perfect 2: it seems to me CV is updating the algorithm and you should wait approx a week before you look at it again as it should/might be finished by then.
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Hope this helps and comment if you need clarification.
I would advise you to reintroduce your statistics / refresh your profile.
In any case, I find the chances calculator very useful but you should be careful how to interpret them. Given that there are so many factors into play plus the human factor of the admissions’ office, they can only give you a feeling rather than a certainty on how likely is your success or failure. There is no magic recipe for admissions and luck is part of the game. The calculator, in my view, will help you to reduce the lack factor but not to eliminate it. Good luck !