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07/24/2020 at 04:58PM

should i trust the chance calculator if my chances have changed a lot recently?

I’m really confused about how the collegevine chancing is working now, and idk whether I should trust it or not…. Literally every school on my list has changed chances. My reaches went up from 10-15% to 30-40% and my safeties/targets went down from 80-90% to 70%. My hard targets also decreased from 50% to 40ish%. This doesn’t make sense since literally nothing has changed since I input this info, yet a couple of weeks ago w/ my SAT and GPA being the same as they are now my chances at my top schools were 15% (Ivys) but now they’re 30-40%, and a school that was a safety for me (BC) is now a target of 65%. What do I believe anymore??

I know it’s not a big deal cause there are obviously a lot of other factors that tie into my application, and all I can do is prepare my hardest and hope for the best. At the same time though, it’s unsettling. Has this happened to you guys too?

@bjk2007/24/2020 at 05:04PM

This same exact thing happened to me. I don't really know why, but I hope it will get fixed. It's not accurate, as my reaches and now targets.

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3 answers

07/27/2020 at 02:44PM

Hey @crsgo0422 thanks for asking this question and for contributing to the forum so frequently! We appreciate it. It's important to know that we constantly adjust the chancing engine, and these latest chances you received are just what’s reflected in the data. We recognize and understand that seeing your chances change randomly can be a bit confusing and we're working on better messaging so when this does happen it will be more clearly communicated and you'll have a better understanding on why they did change.

Accepted Answer
[🎤 AUTHOR]@crsgo042207/27/2020 at 03:10PM

Hi, thank you for the explanation; i had assumed this was the case but I wasn’t completely sure if this was a routine updating of the algorithm or not. I’m glad to have CV as a resource and I definitely plan to continue using it in the coming years, so i’m glad that this updating is something i can become more familiar with. Thank you again!

07/24/2020 at 05:05PM

So not to me but I’ve heard others ask it. The best advice I have is 1: it’s an algorithm and is thus not perfect 2: it seems to me CV is updating the algorithm and you should wait approx a week before you look at it again as it should/might be finished by then.

If you need help email

Hope this helps and comment if you need clarification.

[🎤 AUTHOR]@crsgo042207/26/2020 at 05:49PM

sorry this is such a late reply but thanks, i guess i’ll just wait it out until the end of the summer and see what happens lol

@DebaterMAX07/26/2020 at 06:19PM

So as studentabroad said it’s an indicator and it’s a tool but not law. If you had 50% chance at Harvard take that to mean you have an absurdly strong profile but is more like 1/4. Hope this helps and best of luck.

07/25/2020 at 12:56PM

I would advise you to reintroduce your statistics / refresh your profile.

In any case, I find the chances calculator very useful but you should be careful how to interpret them. Given that there are so many factors into play plus the human factor of the admissions’ office, they can only give you a feeling rather than a certainty on how likely is your success or failure. There is no magic recipe for admissions and luck is part of the game. The calculator, in my view, will help you to reduce the lack factor but not to eliminate it. Good luck !

[🎤 AUTHOR]@crsgo042207/26/2020 at 05:49PM

yeah i definitely agree that the calculator is more of an indicator but at the same time that factor isn’t really so reliable cause the app is many components. thank you!