How realistic is the Chancing Simulator?Answered
I've been using the chancing simulator a lot to reassure me that I'll get into the college I want since I have a 51-60% percent chance of getting in, however, I worry that it's not entirely accurate and I'm banking too much on a calculated guess. My friend who is far more knowledgeable and has a brother who got into my dream school says that these chances are highly inaccurate and that the school is far more competitive (suggesting I have a low likelihood of getting in with my current grades).
Earn karma by helping others:
1 answer
Hey @keitorin!
I'm Matt -- I'm a data scientist here at CollegeVine and one of the main people behind our chancing algorithm. Thanks a bunch for asking this question! The most important thing I can say is that our model (which we overhauled a couple months ago, so it might be a different version than when your friend initially looked at or used it), does a very good job of predicting your chances. There are a few ways that we measure what a "good job" means internally, but there's one metric we cite the most internally -- calibration.
When we say our model is well-calibrated, what that means is that when we say that 100 students have a 55% chance of getting into some colleges, about 55% of them actually end up getting in. For you, this is a really good sign -- it means that you can trust our predicted chances to be accurate representations of your actual chances at the schools on your school list.
I also feel obligated to say that our chancing model is the most complex one out there. It's the only chancing model that accounts for as many factors as we do: We don't only look at your academic profile, but we also factor in your ECs, your intended major, your demographic background, and where you're from, just to name a few.
One thing to keep in mind though: It's important to frame your chances in a way that makes sense to you. A 55% chance is not a guarantee of acceptance, and it's not a guarantee of rejection either. It's about the same chance as you flipping a coin and getting a heads, so while there's a great chance you'll get into your dream school, it's also super important to build out a well-balanced school list that has a good mix of reaches, targets, and safeties so that you can maximize your odds of going to a school you love.
Good luck, and let me know if you have any other questions!
Matt
Your chance of acceptance
Your chancing factors
Community Guidelines
To keep this community safe and supportive:
- Be kind and respectful!
- Keep posts relevant to college admissions and high school.
- Don’t ask “chance-me” questions. Use CollegeVine’s chancing instead!
Matt, I see your explanation is 2 years old so not sure if you're still around but I have a question. At UC Davis, my daughter's chancing engine says 70% and the admit rate is 49%. When I look at the chancing engine, it shows her GPA, EC and Course work to be in line with the "average" compared to the students that get in. Then why would her chance be 20% higher? I assumed it's a combination of her major, maybe her closer location to UC Davis ( we are in the bay area), her high school etc....?