Admission Rates: What to Expect?

I'm a junior right now and I've been trying to get a sense of the competition and what I'm up against. Are there any predictions or trends for admission rates in the coming years? Any info is helpful!

While it is difficult to predict exact admission rates for future applications cycles, we can make some informed guesses based on recent trends and changes within the college admissions landscape. Here are a couple of factors to consider:

1. Continued selectivity at top colleges: Over the past few years, admission rates at many top-tier colleges have decreased, making them even more competitive. The pandemic has led to changes in application requirements such as test-optional policies, which have also contributed to the higher number of applicants.

However, it's important to remember that selectivity varies from college to college, so researching each school's historical admission rates will give you the best indication of what to expect. While acceptance rates from past years might not be as easy to find as the current year's, past Common Data Sets will have this information. The CDS is an annual document that breaks down various data related to a school's admissions and enrollment, and you can easily find a page listing all the recent versions by simply googling "[school] common data set." You can also try to find the CDS directly on a school's website, but it's usually tucked away in a little-trafficked section of the site, so it can be a bit difficult to unearth.

2. Demographic shifts: The U.S. population is undergoing demographic shifts that could impact the number of high school graduates, and consequently, the number of college applicants. For example, the number of high school graduates is projected to plateau and decline beginning in the mid-2020s, which could potentially make competition for admission slightly less intense at some schools. However, admissions rates depend on many other factors as well, including international applicant volume, so this decline isn't a guarantee.

To summarize, while overall competition and selectivity at many top colleges may continue to increase, the landscape of college admissions is constantly evolving. It's not a bad idea to research admission rates and trends for each specific school you're interested in, but also focus on building a strong academic and extracurricular profile to give yourself the best chance of success. Ultimately, your own profile matters more than a school's overall acceptance rate.

Best of luck!