How critical are senior year grades for college apps?

Hey everyone, I'm a junior right now and kind of worried about the importance of senior year grades when I apply to colleges. Does anyone know how much they really matter? I've heard mixed things—some say you're basically in after junior year, but others mention that colleges look closely at your senior grades. Can senior year make or break your application?

Senior year grades can indeed be critical, especially if you're applying Regular Decision, where colleges will look at your first-semester grades, or if you get deferred or waitlisted and they want to see your second-semester grades. While it’s true that your grades until junior year serve as the bulk of your academic record, a significant drop in your senior year can raise red flags for admissions about your commitment and ability to handle challenging coursework. For example, if a student was maintaining a solid A/B record and then suddenly drops to C's and D's senior year, admissions officers might question the student's readiness for college-level work. On the flip side, improvement or consistent performance can work in your favor, showing maturity and sustained effort. So, strive to keep your grades up! Good academic performance in your senior year will only strengthen your application and demonstrate your readiness for the rigors of college.