Is the Collegevine chancing calculator really accurate?Answered
Hello! I have only recently started using the website and was shocked when the calculator claimed I had a 66-78% chance of getting into UCLA when the university has a 15% acceptance rate. I know that it only takes into account SAT/ACT, AP, Extracurriculars, etc. and that it doesn't take into account the essays and other factors, but the chancing seemed extremely high based on my stats. Is this accurate?
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Hi there! Thanks for raising your question -- we're constantly updating the algorithm to try to make it as attuned to the reality of admissions as possible, so we always value feedback.
As others have noted, there are many factors that the calculator takes into account, including grades, scores, activities, location, and demographics. Without knowing your exact circumstances, some common reasons why students might see higher chances than seem intuitive include identification as an underrepresented minority or as a female student planning to study in a STEM field. Such qualitative factors do play a certain role in the holistic admissions process, so we add them to the calculation.
Of course, the calculator is giving you only what it estimates to be your chances; having a high probability like 78% doesn't necessarily guarantee your admission (just as having a lower chance doesn't spell doom for your application), but it should help you realistically gauge your standing for a school.
I hope this sheds a bit of light on the situation, and I wish you the best of luck in the admissions process!
Hi there! Coming back to this thread since we recently released a blog post and video that explain our chancing more in-depth. We get a lot of questions about our chancing engine, how it works, whether it's accurate, and how to interpret your chances, so we hoped to answer those questions in these resources. Let us know if you have any more questions!
Blog post: Is CollegeVine's Chancing Engine Actually Accurate? - https://bit.ly/collegevinechancing
Video: How CollegeVine's Chancing Engine Works - https://cv.watch/3BXxaH6
So nothing can accurately foretell what the Admissions officers say but the methodology from all appearances is sound. With my stats everything seems accurate but Id say that at top-tier schools it is a tad generous. Also the racial aspect is overblown (went from 25% as white male to 80% as black male at UMICH). But it is a great way to know where you're comparitevily. Even a 1% shot means you can get admitted.
It also is the most comprehensive calculated available. Without knowing your stats I ct comment on your circumstances but look at the chancing break down to see where you are as you seem to be ranked excellent in almost all or all of the stats.
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