How accurate is the chancing calculator?
I'm a sophomore and I've input 10 ECs + my scores and GPA that I project to have by the time I graduate. I don't think anything about me is particularly outstanding (no spikes), but the chancing calculator gives me 40%+ target for even the hardest schools-- I am very skeptical of how accurate this is. Is anyone else experiencing something similar? Am I doing something wrong that has caused it to wayy overestimate me?
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Well I applied for fall 2021 and the results for my chancing have been accurate for less competitive schools. I think it becomes a little more inaccurate as the admission standards of the school increase. For example, I applied to NYU under EDII and my chancing was about 40%, but I didn't get in. NYU is quite a competitive school and even though I had the stats to get in, I didn't. The whole admission process is fairly random and even if you meet admission requirements you could still get rejected. So I would say be a bit weary of the chancing, especially for schools with lower acceptance rates. At the end of the day there are probably thousands of students applying to the same school as you, with the same stats as you and each school can only admit a fraction of that number.
I will offer a bit of advice though. Start with your essays early, partake in extracurricular activities, get good recommendations and take rigorous classes. From my experience that means more to a university than just stats alone. It can move you from being an average student to being outstanding. Don't worry too much now. Enjoy your high school experience. Just make sure your grades don't slip ;)
I've applied for Fall 2021, here's what I've got so far.
Stanford (Reach 21-32% chance) - REJECTED
Georgia Tech (Hard Target 47-54%) - Deferred to Regular Decision
UMich (Hard Target 47%-53%) - ACCEPTED
UC Irvine (Target 74%-81%) - ACCEPTED (with honors college)
Cal Poly SLO (Safety 87-92%) - ACCEPTED (NOTE WITH THIS ONE, I'm fairly confident cal poly is a reach/hard target for anyone)
SJSU (Safety 87-92%) - ACCEPTED
so so far, it has been rather accurate. For schools with UNDER 20% acceptance rates, it's gotten less accurate, but above that range, it is fairly accurate.
So as with all chancing tools regardless of use it isn't a representation of real-world as it's an algorithm albeit the best algorithm available anywhere. It does get a tad weird with more selective schools as mentioned especially ivies and HYPSM schools as in someone said they had an over 50% chance at Harvard. But for those schools that is fairly well explained by not taking into consideration human preference as in an admission may see your EC of captai of football team nd more or less auto reject you because he hates jocks or something like that. It also doest account for what I call subjective statistics which are a fancy word for essays as that's also human preference.
I believe it was LilynDash who best said it it is a ball park figure and if you have a very low chance at Stanford dot apply because it sounds nice but apply to the low chance schools that are some of your top choices. Im not a huge Darthmouth person and I have a low chance there so its not worth me applying if that makes sense.
Also try comparing the IRL admit rate to your chancing result. The average person gets admitted to Harvard 5% of the time for your demographic its 4% so if you have a 10-15% chance you are 3x better than the average applicant. So make of that what you will but ultimately a computer is a computer and its a phemonal tool but its not omniposent.
Hope this helps and excuse any spelling errors. If you want ask for clarification Id be happy to help!
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