The % chance of getting admitted has dramatically changed
Have you updated your chancing algorithim? Colleges that were a analyzed as a target in december 2020 are now a hard target or reach school. Do you have information that suggests it is harder to get accepted for Fall 2021?
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I think you should email CollegeVine support directly rather than posting that question on the Admissions Advice forum since mostly everyone on here is a user and an HS student.
Since I keep very close track of admissions rates for ED, EA, SCREA, and RD, I have to agree that getting into a college is harder this cycle, especially with Top 50 schools. I knew that ED, EA, SCREA rates were historical lows this December because all top colleges received record numbers of applications. So for early admission, rates were sometimes twice as hard as the previous cycle. Harvard accepted 7% (rounded) vs. 14% and MIT accepted 5% versus 7.5%.
And so far the trend is continuing into RD. 3 days ago MIT's combined rate was 4% which meant the RD rate was a little better than 3.4%. Going into IVY week my predictions are the following:
Harvard 1.9% down from 3.2%, overall acceptance rate, 2.9% vs 4.9% (57000 apps received up 42%)
Columbia 3% down from 5.1%, overall acceptance rate 3.7% vs 6.1% (60548 apps received up 51%)
Princeton overall acceptance rate 4.6% (no Early Action this cycle) vs. 5.6% (37000 apps received up 13%)
Yale 4% down from 5.1%, overall acceptance rate 5.1% vs 6.5% (approx 45000 apps received up 30%)
Brown 4.5% down from 5.4%, overall acceptance rate 5.1% vs 6.9% (46469 apps received up 26%)
UPenn 5% down from 6%, overall acceptance rate 6.5% vs 8.1% (56,000 apps received up 34%)
Dartmouth overall acceptance rate 6.9% versus 9.1% (28338 apps received up 32%)
Cornell 7% down from 8.7%, overall acceptance rate 8.2% vs 10.9% (68500 apps received up 33%)
This is purely a function of top schools receiving anywhere between 20% and 50% more applications and there being fewer available seats to fill since at some top schools 20% of the Class of '24 took deferred admission and they want to start this fall. There are no extra dorm rooms to accommodate 20% more students so there are up to 20% fewer spots this cycle than last.
Harvard is the worst case. Last year 895 out of 6424 were admitted early action. And of the total of 2015 were admitted out of 40424. There were approx. 1650 matriculates and 349 took a deferred admission so only 1301 enrolled. In this cycle, 747 out of 10086 were admitted early or 148 less. And assuming the ratios, then they will only accept about 850-875 for regular decision assuming an 80% yield only 1400 + say 350 that deferred is 1750. Then you figure 100 will defer admissions from the Class of '25 which is a normal amount. So they'll end up with the same 1650 freshman class.
Since they received over 57,000 applications, and 10086 were SCREA, then the RD pool is 47000. If Harvard only admits 850-875 then the RD acceptance rate is going to be 1.8-1.9% this cycle, 2% tops.
So this trend will continue into the next 2 foreseeable admissions cycles as more applicants will apply without test scores. The only ones making money are the colleges because they are getting millions of dollars in additional application revenues.
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