Class of '25 Admission Rates are the new reality for Class of '26 and beyond.

My take is that Ivys and Elites lie, Stanford, MIT, CalTech will continue to be uber-competitive at 5% or less. Then your LACs like Swarthmore, Williams, Colby, Amherst, Barnard, Pomonas, and near Ivys like Vanderbilt, NWestern, UChicago will be forever under in the 6-10%. Your near elites like Georgetown, Notre Dame, Tufts, USC, UCLA, Berkeley will be in the 10-14%, and your V.Competitives like BC, BU, Middlebury, Colgate, Hamilton, Colorado, UMich, Tulane's will be in the 15-19%, and then your Big Researches like UNC, UVA, UCSD, UCSB, will be 20+% none of these will be struggling.

I think the only ones that are going to struggle next cycle are the T100-T500 schools that don't have a strategic plan in place. I was very impressed that schools like Syracuse (#58), Colgate (#20 LAC), Union (#44), and Bard (#54) all surprised because they have their act together. Colgate had a 102% increase in applications and Bard just got a $1 Billion commitment from donor George Soros to prop them up for the next 3 years. That would quadruple their endowment. I feel the smaller LACs like Lewis & Clark, Willamette, Wheaton, Whitman, will feel a pinch. It's like retail, no one wants to shop at Sears, Kmart, Macys, JCPennys, they all want Nordstroms, Montcler, Nike, Chanel, Lululemon, Zara.

I wouldn't be surprised if there is a huge higher education market consolidation over the next 5 years. I think 500-1000 colleges will either close or get absorbed by bigger more successful franchises. I also see a great opportunity for better and more prestigious online college degrees put together by consortiums of colleges like maybe 10 LACs getting together and offering online.

Wait... so maybe the amount of applications they receive will eventually drop down again?

What about UF? Where would they rank? Struggling or not?

I don't think the Univ.of Florida will be much affected since they keep getting more applicants and admitting better students. Plus they are a large state-funded school. More tax base= more UF budget.

Applications rates may go down if all the Ivys and Elites and LACS make SAT/ACT tests a requirement again. I don't envision that until the Class of 2027+. Next year is already for the most part Test-optional. I think many colleges LOVE LOVE LOVE the PR that admit rates are going down at their school and applications are up.

Thank you for taking notice. I appreciate the support! It's scary how all these top schools are dipping below the 5% mark.

Really random but I'm planning to ED at Johns Hopkins and then EDII at WashU. What do you think the chances of ED will be at Hopkins for next application cycle?

ED at JHU will prob. be in the 20% range which is significantly better than the 4% RD rate. I think WashU EDII will be same as this year. I don't too much movement in WashU may 1% less than this cycle.

Georgetown 11.7% (2025) vs 15.5% (2024), and forget about test-optional because 93% of admits submitted test scores this cycle. 27650 vs 21318 applicatons last year (+30%)