3 years ago
Admissions Advice

Attn: 10th/11th graders - The Chancing Engine's new outlook seems rather grim for Ivys/Elites

Some of you may have noticed this, many of you probably are unaware so I'm posting this. This past week there has been an update to the chancing engine. And this one is a doozy! I'm not personally affected by this update because I committed to Columbia Univ. in May but I have still kept my chancing profile up as well as my college list. According to the latest changing engine update, it will be 50% harder to get into the same list of colleges from last week with submitted test scores and about 2 to 3 times harder than the previous cycle without test scores.

Since nothing has changed with new COVID-19 policies like test-optional and all the admit rates have been out since the last major update last month, I have to ask CV, what is the reason for this new grim chancing engine outlook for top schools? The only thing I can think of is that the last major update really didn't take into account the record number of applications and low admit rates. Perhaps someone in the know can answer this question for the 10th/11th graders on CollegVine. I'm not sure what to make of it and thought if you have any top schools in your college list, perhaps you'd like to know why the projections are much lower for everyone. While I may think this is a valid and critical issue to discuss I'm surprised at how many of you have ignored to comment. Not even 1 person is concerned.

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3 years ago

Hey @CameronBameron,

It's great you're looking out for other users on the site! We're big fans of how helpful everyone is when using Communities. However, we haven't actually released any major updates to the chancing engine since the changes detailed in this post: https://www.collegevine.com/questions/15166/-chancing-algorithm-updates-may-2021.

We did make some minor tweaks in how we calculate some information from your profile around 2 weeks ago but we don't believe those changes would have had a huge effect on chances for the vast majority of cases. It's possible you were in the minority and did see a swing in your chances.

🎤3 years ago[edited]

Thank Shaq. I changed some ECs since being accepted to Columbia, I made to the final round of the US Presidential Scholars program and had some other editor and chairperson positions but it's not back up to what it was just a week ago, so I must be a special case.

3 years ago

I've seen you mention you were accepted to Columbia and I don't think I've taken the time to congratulate you. That's a huge accomplishment and you should be proud! Same goes for the Presidential Scholars program.

What are you looking forward to most about Columbia?

🎤3 years ago

Thank you, Shaquille! I think the biggest thing would be leaving my bubble and comfort zone here in Oregon and getting to meet some amazing people including students, teachers, and New Yorkers. I've been joking to my friends that "nobody opens the door for "native" New Yorker so that's one of the urban myths I'm trying to prove/disprove. Have a great summer!


What are your chances of acceptance?
Your chance of acceptance
Duke University
+ add school
Your chancing factors
Unweighted GPA: 3.7
SAT: 720 math
| 800 verbal


Low accuracy (4 of 18 factors)

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