On this app, is a hard target possible to get into or is it almost impossible?

Hey @Jzapolski08!

I'm Matt -- I'm a data scientist here at CollegeVine and one of the main people behind the chancing engine. Thanks a bunch for asking this question. I think interpreting your chances is extremely important, and chances are misunderstood and misinterpreted so often.

Here's the truth: Your chances are never a guarantee. If we tell you that your chance at Villanova is 30%, we're not telling you that you'll get in, or that you won't. It's really important to try to make that 30% chance make sense to you. For example, 30% is about the chance that you'd roll a 1 or a 2 if you rolled a die right now. It's also about the chance that if you pick a random day during the summer in Boston, it happens to be raining.

It's important to frame your chances this way because it helps make one thing really, really clear: It's raining today in Boston, so that 30% chance event just happened, and it happens all the time. Really, it rains in Boston a lot, and you wouldn't think it was totally crazy for it to be raining on any given day even though it only happens about 30% of the time. Die rolls of 1 or 2 also happen a lot (1/3 of the time), and you wouldn't be surprised if on your first roll in Monopoly or something you rolled a 1 or a 2. For the same reason, if we say that Villanova is a hard target for you, you should definitely not be surprised if you get in! It's totally possible, and even pretty likely!

Let me know if you have other questions, and good luck! We're rooting for you :)