As an international Asian applicant, does 20-30% into UCB mean I have virtually no chance of getting in?

Answered

Keep doing what you are doing because your odds are better than most. Also, focus on the end game which is getting into a great college, not just 1 college.

If you have 20%-30% on the chancing engine for UCBerkeley that is already like twice the rate of the Class of 2025 which is around 13% so that's good, not bad. The Chancing engine already factored in your Asian race. So if you think of rolling a DICE with (6) outcomes, and you want either to roll a 5 or 2, then your chances are 33% of rolling that. If you are just trying to roll a 5, then you have a 17% chance of getting a 5. Most people think these odds are reasonable and will want to roll the dice.

So if you apply to say 10 schools with a 20/30% chance of getting in the chance of getting into 1 school out of 10 is almost 95%, because you are going to roll the dice 10 times, not 1 time. So I would not worry about the chances of getting into just one school because most people maximize their chances of getting into top school by applying to 10 or 20 schools. That is the only reason why so many top students do this.

So if you applied to UCI, UCB, UCLA, UCSB, and UCSD, and say the average chancing was 25%, after 5 rolls the chances of getting into 1 is 76%. I'm pretty sure you are going to get into one of them.

When you watch youtube videos of College Decisions, I think you will notice is that many really smart kids apply to all 8 Ivys, not just 1 or 2. They might want to get in Yale or Harvard, but they apply to all 8 because even getting into Cornell or Dartmouth is better than not getting in any of them.

The CV is the most accurate engine out there in the public marketplace and anyone that refutes that doesn't know what they are talking about. It's true that you can't factor in your essays or recommendations but let's be honest, those 2 components will never make up more than 20% of your application combined. The most valuable components are your academics (UWGPA, Course Rigor, Number of APs, IBs, Dual Enrollment, College Course, Evidence of Intellectual Vitality, Honors, Awards, Independent and co-authored research) and ECs (Leadership positions, Sports, Clubs, Jobs, Volunteering, Community Service, other responsibilities). So if CV can capture 80% of your application file, everyone on here should be fairly confident that their chancing range is better than anyone else's guesses.

Plus they have 10 years of admitting data, CV member profiles, etc so there are literally millions of data points that can help them continuously tweak their model.

I disagree with the idea that you can uncheck your race on the Common App. I just logged into the Common App and I saw no such thing. If you are an Asian from China, S.Korea, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, India, etc you have to answer questions on the Common App which will immediately identify who you are.

The Common App will ask you

1. What country and city you were born in and how long you have lived outside of the United States.

2. What your native language is and what your 2nd or 3rd languages are.

3. Your legal Name including your First, Middle, and Last name

4. Your religion and denomination

5. The name of your high school and if your teachers submit recommendations, they will know who they are as well.

6. Your address and contact information

7. Under demographics - you have to pick one

-American Indian or Alaska Native

-Asian

-Black or African American

-Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander

-White

And if you pick Asian you have to pick one or more.

Cambodia

China

India

Japan

Korea

Malaysia

Pakistan

Philippines

Vietnam

Other East Asia

Other South Asia

Other Southeast Asia

Keep up the good work and whatever you do, don't try to game the Common App.