What percentage when chancing?Answered
I know that Collegevine ranks your schools as Target, Safety, etc. but, what is a percentage I should look for when applying? 40%, 50%, and up. Also, is the simulator correct/around the range. Like, I have a 44% of getting into UCLA, a t20 school and I want to know if that is correct so I can celebrate.
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I would have a mix of schools on my list. Contrary to some, I'm true believer that you only need 1 or 2 safety schools, no more than that. So may that's something like UC Riverside. Safeties are +80%. Then I would have say 2-3 target schools in the 50-79% range. You should pick schools you actually would like to attend, otherwise you will be bummed to have to go there. Then I would pick like 4-6 hard target schools which are those being 30-49% on CV. These will be your UCLAs, UCBerkelys, UMich, UVAs. Lastly I would pick a bunch of Hard Targets like your Pomona, CMCs, Rice, NotreDame, Tufts, Cornell. I can't tell you what the right number is because I don't know how far along you are with the college application process. If you are under a major time crunch then maybe 10-12 schools is enough. If you have a lot of time, maybe 15-20 schools total.
It would err on the side of caution celebrating any chancing percentage. It's up to the application gODs at this point right?
Is the CV chancing engine accurate? It's better than any other chancing engine but I'd say it's just a guideline with a -/+ 20% margin of error.
I would take CollegeVine's chancing with a grain of salt. 44% is definitely possible if you have great grades and good extra curricular and a non-impacted major (I have no clue if these apply to you, though). Look at UCLA's average admitted GPA and the level of extracurriculars expected, as well as the level of essays, and if you see that in all those regards your application is quite strong, that is likely that you have a good chance to get in. It's celebrating your hard work, basically.
You want a good mix of acceptance rates, some 80-100% for safety, 40-80% for target, and 1-40% for reach.
Hope that helps!
The chancing calculator looks little off to me (too optimistic) for schools that are now test blind because it appears it is still factoring in the SAT/ACT score. Since UCs are now test blind, you might want to take that into consideration.
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