Predicting early chances???

Answered

Let's eliminate UVA because you already a legacy there and if you apply ED you'll most likely be an auto-admit because your parent is an alum. I recommend you apply EA to UVA so you have somewhere to go but the option to apply elsewhere. Just a thought.

The big take away is that while Early admit rates are higher however that doesn't necessarily mean ones individual chances of getting in have an increased probability. There are many factors that diminish one's chances of getting admitted early.

Factor 1: All the strongest applicants at an given school apply early and get cherry picked off. You will be competing with the smartest kids who want to go to that college and & want to avoid applying during in the RD round. So all the strongest applicants for Huntsman and Wharton are going to apply early, especially if those programs are their top 2 choices. By the same token, all the smartest students who have pre-selected Princeton or Duke or Dartmouth as their top choice will apply early. And so forth down the line.

Factor 2: If you have are an ALDC or have a hook, applying early will improve your odds. That means any recruited athlete, legacy, development candidate, child of faculty, Black, LatinX, Indigenous, Non-CIS, low income, first generation college applicant will get a large singular bump, or a compounded bump if they have multiple tags. So a PG football player from Deerfield or Choate who is both a recruited athlete, black, low income and first gen. may have a 10X advantage. If you are just a legacy, you might have a 3-5X improved chance of getting in during the early round.

Factor 3: Most HS students are unaware that most of these schools work closely with community based programs like Questbridge, Posse and Fritch and Strong Scholarships, Jack Kent Cooke, Coca Cola, Gates, etc. These programs successfully match up to 75-100 student at each of these schools which can be like 10%-15% of the admitted ED/EA roster.

A rule of thumb is not to apply early if:

-Your grades are on an upward trend and you need another semester of rigorous coursework (APs/IBs) + grades to improve your UWGPA/WGPA

-You are aiming to take the ACT or SAT in the Fall and need that test score improvement to make your application more competitive (50% percentile range)

-Your ECs are not at the top of their "A" game and you need more time to curate a "SPIKE" or "WOW FACTOR" activity. Ivys/Elite definitely reward someone with a WOW factor.

-You need more time and effort to write better essays

Therefore, it's really hard to tell if you would have better chance of applying early to any of these schools vs the CV chancing rate. Since 3/5 are reach schools are the other 2 are borderline reaches, with the exception of UVA, I think all of them will be challenging to get into early. I don't know whether you can make improvement on your application components. If you can, perhaps, consider applying to all of those during RD when have a better odds and the pool is weaker across the board.

Good luck.