If your admission chances is greater than the acceptance rate,what does it mean?

Answered

A total of 46,568 students applied for admission to Brown’s undergraduate Class of 2025. The University admitted 2,569 students (5.5%). The 8% rate is an outdated rate from 3 years ago. This implies 94.5% will get rejected.

When 46,568 apply to Brown, it's not like throwing a six sided dice 🎲 contrary to what people think. That would only be the case if each applicant had the same qualifications and they do not. Some applicants, say 10% of them, have a excellent chance (say 50%) of getting into Brown and they have not only the best grades, test scores, ECs, recommendations, and spikes or wow factor, but they also are people Brown is looking for on their wish list.

Out of the 5.5% that got in last cycle, 40% were ALDCs (recruited athletes, legacies, development $$$ donors, and children of faculty/staff) and 20% were "hook" applicants who come from under served or marginalized backgrounds like being Black, LatinX, Indigenous, Non-CIS, low-income or first Gen. (parents didn't attend Ivy college). The rest were just super smart and talent upper middle class and wealthy Whites and Asians that either attended a private school or were top of their class at public school.

If you created a scatter plot of 46,568 with just 2 criteria, like Test Scores (SAT/ACT) and UWGPA on the X and Y axis, most of the admits will be crowed in the upper right corner having the highest grades and test scores. 90% of the scatter plot will be distributed in the other 3 quadrants. This pattern is typical for all top schools these days because perhaps 1/3 or more of the applicants are just "shooting their shot" because Brown like all top colleges doesn't require standardized test scores and applicants think their other application is good enough. So intuitively, if you have the best grades and test scores, and other critical attributes, you might have a very good chance (30-40%+) not only at Brown, but all the Ivys, Elites and Top Liberal Arts colleges. And if you have a 10% CV chance at Brown, it's probably going to be around 10% (+/-5 points) at all the other Ivies.

What this means is that a Top applicant applying to all 8 Ivys is probably going to get into most of them and someone who has a 10% chance will probably get rejected by all of them.

Having a 12% chancing probability is better than 5.5% but it still means that for every 100 people with a 12% probability, 88/100 will be passed over. So Brown is still a reach or hard reach for that probability.

To have attain a more realistic probability rate for Brown, you can try and manipulating the inputs to see how that affects your % rating. For instance, you can change your SAT or ACT score, or add 3 more APs or improve the Tier Level of your ECs, change your grades and class rank. You will soon see what the theoretical maximum for you can be.

The CV chancing engine is very good but remember nothing captures all the data inputs that Ivy League schools use. Your recommendations, essays, supplemental Brown video, and future endeavors don't get factored in. I'm not sure the CV engine captures ALDCs either.

Hope this is helpful to you. Good luck.