Chancing Simulator Accuracy??Answered
The Chancing Simulator on here is amazing, I love it!! However, I know there must be some shortcomings to its accuracy. Currently, I have my SATs in as 1500 (projected, i haven't taken SAT yet), 10 extracurriculars all at very strong or above, 9 honors, 7 ap&college courses, and a 3.96 GPA. My chances for my choice schools are as follows: Stanford 14%, UCLA 28%, UCB 26%, and UofM 48%. I was wondering if there was anyone out there who knew if with the types of ECs and academics I have, if these percentages are accurate, or if it's likely that I get into these schools, even though the % seems low? thank you!! :D
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4 answers
Hi @miabrez, I think the CV results with your inputs is correct.
Compared to the overall admit rates for the 4 schools you mention you are tracking at about 2.5 to 3.0X the actual rate which I rounded to Stanford 4%, UCLA 10%, UCB 12%, UMich 18%.
My inputs are different than yours and my results are Stanford 36%, UCB 56% UCLA 57% and UMich 79%.
-SAT 1530-1560 (ACT 35 equivalent)
-2 Tier 1 ECs, 8 Tier 2 ECs, including Varsity team captain, Editor of newspaper, 3 year ASB, served on 6 community board of directors for the City, School District and Library.
-9 APs, avg. 4.5 test score
-22 Honors Classes
-30 college credits with 3.9625 GPA
-UWGPA 4.0, WGPA 4.44
-Rank somewhere between 3 and 5.
-Public school, 1 year private boarding,
-Mixed race female, non Black, non Hispanic
-US Presidential Scholar
-Non legacy, non recruited athlete, non marginalized, non first gen
So even with my stats, I only have a 1/3 to 1/2 chance to get into them. That is why there are so many rejections and wait list decisions these last 2 cycles. NO ONE is guaranteed to get into a T20 school even if you are a legacy, recruited athlete or have rich parents that can write a $10MM check.
My recommendation to you is to work on the following:
-Intellectual vitality/curiosity score
-Improve your SAT to 1550
-Curate a "spike" narrative in your ECs that is uniquely your own
-Pick some targets schools between 30% and 50% you will be happy to attend and visit them this summer.
3 Cycles back your total package would be adequate at many T20 schools for sure but now there are 50% more people applying to the same schools and yield rates are super high.
Furthermore, schools that were not even considered 2nd tier like NEastern, Tulane that now have 7%-10% admit rates. What's all the fuss about to go to those schools. I'd rather go to Vassar, Middlebury, UVA, Wake Forest, UofWashington or William and Mary. Just like designer kicks and clothes are been hyped-up by marketers and influencers, I feel that many schools are turning into hype schools even though there are far better options to choose from.
Good luck
The chancing simulator is fairly close to accurate. Keep in mind the schools you mentioned are mostly top-end universities.
-Barrett Feagin
National Merit Scholar
The Chancing Engine is giving you an accurate estimated odds of admission. However, it may be off by a few percentage points because it cannot take into account these unknown factors in the admissions process:
1. Admissions officers may view your ECs and honors as more or less impressive than you ranked them
2. The Chancing Engine is unable to predict how your teacher recommendations, alumni interview results, and application essays will be received
If you think that most of these unknowns will be a plus for you, then your predicted odds of admission will be higher and vice versa. Hope this helps!
Sounds accurate. CA schools are ultra competitive. Some of these schools are test optional possibly test blind. Looking at GPA for the CA schools you are going to need higher. I heard that to get in to Stanford they’re looking at 4.7/4.8 or higher.
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Your chancing factors
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Thank you so much, that was really helpful for providing some comparisons. First off, wow you have quite the resume! how do fit so many awesome stuff into a high school schedule!? admirable, really. second, I do have a “spike”—i’m going into enviro sci and a majority of my ECs are related to this and have to do with research and youth education. I think i can manage getting a higher SAT score, so do you think that would help my chances? also, what do you mean by “intellectual vitality/curiosity”