Sometimes the Chancing Engine Percentages are not what you think they should be

The Chancing Engine Percentages are not what you think they should be. As an experiment I put a long list of Ivys, Elites, LACs, and Various other colleges to see what my current chances are. My gut tells me some are correct, others not so much. There is no possibility in my mind that a bunch of liberal arts colleges would be harder than the Ivys and MIT to get into. Just to humor myself I copied the list for you to see what I mean. Then I re-shuffled the list to what I think it really is like in this admissions cycle. I wonder if any of you have done something like this and scratched your head why things just seem to be very out of place.

LEFT SIDE is the Chancing Order and % for my college list. RIGHT SIDE is how I would order them.

Chancing Engine /MY ADJUSTED LIST

Caltech 31% /Harvard University

Yale University 32% /Yale University

Harvard University 33% /Stanford University

Pomona College 34% /MIT

Swarthmore College 34% /Caltech

Stanford University 36% /Columbia University

Princeton University 36% /Princeton University

Bowdoin College 37% /Brown University

Columbia University 37% /UPenn

Brown University 38% /UChicago

Colby 39% /Duke

Duke 39% /Dartmouth

Amherst 41% /Pomona College

UChicago 42% /Swarthmore College

MIT 46% /Cornell University

Dartmouth 47% /Vanderbilt University

Rice 48% /Northwestern

Northwestern 49% /Johns Hopkins University

Williams 49% /Amherst

UPenn 49% /Bowdoin College

Claremont McKenna 49% /Tufts University

Johns Hopkins 52% /Claremont McKenna

Colorado College 55% /Rice

UC Berkeley 56% /Barnard College

Barnard College 56% /UCLA

UCLA 57% /UC Berkeley

Cornell University 57% /Wash U in St. Louis

Vanderbilt University 59% /New York University

USAir Force Academy 61% /Williams

Grinnell College 62% /Colby

Wash U in St. Louis 63% /Boston College

Carleton College 65% /Boston University

Tufts University 66% /Grinnell College

Middlebury College67% /Carleton College

Washington& Lee 67% /Middlebury College

Univ Notre Dame 69% /University of Notre Dame

Davidson College 70% /Colorado College

Northeastern 73% /Washington& Lee Univ.

US Mil Westpoint 76% /USAir Force Academy

Reed College 77% /US Military -Westpoint

University Virginia 78% /University of Virginia

Vassar College 81% /Vassar College

Smith College 82% /Davidson College

Wake Forest 83% /Northeastern University

Tulane University 86% /Tulane University

New York University 86% /Wake Forest University

Boston University 86% /Macalester College

Boston College 90% /Smith College

Macalester College 91% /Reed College

Mount Holyoke 94% /Mount Holyoke College