2 years ago
Admissions Advice

Chancing percentage changing?

Hey, I was wondering why my chances on all my saved schools went way down recently. I changed nothing about my statistics and some schools dropped by about 20% could this be a mistake or did schools change their admission rates?

🎉 First post
Let’s welcome @KaliM to the community! Remember to be kind, helpful, and supportive in your responses.

Earn karma by helping others:

1 karma for each ⬆️ upvote on your answer, and 20 karma if your answer is marked accepted.

2 answers

2 years ago

What is going on is that College Vine rolled out a new update on the chancing engine. This update is supposed to have a more accurate method of calculating your probability for admission to a particular college based of more accurate admissions data collected from a database of applicants who applied in the recent few cycles. It is supposed to have better input data like more accurate admissions data sets for each college like GPA, 50% range test scores SAT/ACT, test-optional bias (whether or not submitting test scores factor into decisions), past admissions rates for both ED/EA/RD and demographic biases which favor BIPOC, first gen, low income, marginalized students and penalize over represented groups like White and East Asians. And so forth and so on. So the intent is very good because everyone on CV wants to know a more realistic opinion of what their chances are so they can curate a more informed list of colleges to apply to.

That being said, the rollout of this update has been more controversial than previous updates to the chancing engine because of its complexity and added functionality. I would imagine there is far more code in this one singular update than the original chancing engine Version 1.0. So there are going to "bugs" and calculations are going to spit out wrong numbers. But not to be alarmed because the rollout is sort of an "hard release Alpha update" not a "soft Beta to 500 CV users." So there are going to be more upset people who might feel this as a punch to the gut.

Therefore be patient and allow the CV team to fix the bugs and help them by either contacting support@collegevine.com or posting a real life issue with the outputs.

So hang in there and keep reporting your outputs online to the community and that will help determine if they are specific bugs with a college and how it's hard coded into the algorithm or something more general.

Hope that helps answer your concern and worry.

2 years ago

So, I noticed that schools have (mostly) gone down in acceptance rates. However, there seems to be a few bugs with the new code. My personal profile is showing a 91% chance of being admitted to Lehigh Uni (which has a 40-50% acceptance rate) didn't change much from my initial chancing. However, it is showing a 95% chance for WELLESLEY. 20% acceptance rate school (that is definitely not right I was expecting something between 30-50%). I wouldn't take anything to heart quite yet. there will be changes made to this code. I'd expect actual chances for your admission to be between the very low numbers that are displayed right now and the very high numbers that were displayed prior to this update.

What are your chances of acceptance?
Your chance of acceptance
Duke University
+ add school
Your chancing factors
Unweighted GPA: 3.7
SAT: 720 math
| 800 verbal


Low accuracy (4 of 18 factors)

Community Guidelines

To keep this community safe and supportive:

  1. Be kind and respectful!
  2. Keep posts relevant to college admissions and high school.
  3. Don’t ask “chance-me” questions. Use CollegeVine’s chancing instead!

How karma works