I'm a 9th grader at Sammamish High school and I know for a fact that being transgender (ftm) is going to affect my chances for getting into certain colleges.
Applying a transgender student will definitely have an impact on your college admissions. Colleges that are pro-trans are going to want you and colleges that are conservative like Christian or Jesuit or Catholic colleges may pass on you. Why? Because your identity doesn't align with the schools values.
So it's very important that you do proper due diligence and focus on pro-trans colleges. Here is a short list of schools that are pro-trans/LGTBQIA+. Good luck.
Ithaca College Ithaca, NY
Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey- New Brunswick, NJ
University of Maryland, College Park, MD
Lehigh University Bethlehem, PA
Montclair State University Montclair, NJ
The Pennsylvania State University University Park, PA
University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia, PA
Princeton University Princeton, NJ
MIDWEST REGION
Kansas State University Manhattan, KS
Southern Illinois University Carbondale, IL
Indiana University, Bloomington, IN
University of Wisconsin – Eau Claire, WI
University of Wisconsin – Milwaukee WI
University of Wisconsin – Green Bay WI
The Ohio State University Columbus, OH
Kenyon College Gambier, OH
Kent State University Kent, OH
Augsburg University (formerly Augsburg College) Minneapolis, MN
Macalester College Saint Paul, MN
Purdue University West Lafayette, IN
University of Michigan-Ann Arbor MI
NEW ENGLAND REGION
Tufts University Medford, MA
University of Massachusetts Amherst MA
University of Vermont Burlington, VT
MIT Cambridge, MA
SOUTHEAST REGION
Guilford College Greensboro, NC
Northern Kentucky University Highland Heights, KY
Elon University Elon, NC
University of Kentucky Lexington, KY
University of Louisville Louisville, KY
SOUTHWEST REGION
University of Texas at Dallas Richardson, TX
UT-Dallas TX
Texas Tech University Lubbock, TX
WEST REGION
University of Washington Seattle, WA
University of Oregon Eugene, OR
Portland State University Portland, OR
University of Colorado at Boulder Boulder, CO
Southern Oregon University Ashland, OR
San Diego State University San Diego, CA
Washington State University Pullman, WA
Harvey Mudd College Claremont, CA
I don't know how it affects chancing, but it will affect legal documentation. You'll need transcripts and things under your legal name in order to apply to colleges, whatever that legal name is at the time.
To keep this community safe and supportive:
I don't think it will affect your chancing, but since it is an important part of your personality/life, then you could write your personal statement on your experiences to share information that conveys the journey you've gone through, and how it has made you who you are.