The Chancing Engine Need some time to settle in with both tweaks/adjustments, please be patient

For educational purposes only, I'm sharing my chancing results from a month ago as compared to the last 2 days. There is a lot of changes to the results, some have to do with lower admit rates, others have to do with modified assumptions about input data.

Just some background data, I took a gap year after getting admitted into Columbia last year. So when I applied/admitted I had a chancing range of like 38-47% because that's how CV used to do chancing which I think is much better than a single number. So I had straight As, 35+ ACT, 9 APs (4.5 avg), 10 impressive ECs (2 Tier 1s, 8 Tier 2s), Public HS, Mixed Race Female, applied Financial aid, Varsity Team Captain, 3 years leadership, 3-4 community board positions, US Presidential scholar, 30 college credits.

This year my academic narrative should be stronger because I was a PG Post Graduate student to a top boarding school where 30% of the applicants who apply to Ivys get admitted. Although my school didn't rank quin-tile GPA ranges are published and I'd be #3-#5 out of 200 graduating seniors. I took 15 classes or 5 per tri-mester including 6-7 college level English classes 600 Level, a couple Philosophy courses- level 600, a few History classes- Level 600, and some co-curriculars like community service on an Organic Farm, Photography, Digital Film Making, and being a Stage Manager for a Musical. And let me just say 600 Level boarding school courses are much harder than APs or IBs.

That being said, my academic narrative is much stronger now. I have 11 English classes, and 8 History classes before I start Freshman year this fall. But you can see from my chancing percentages that CV gives me only 22% to get admitted into Columbia. While I open-mindedly accept that chances a year ago might have be over zealous or too generous, I do not think they would have decreased from a range of 38-47% (42.5% Mid) for Columbia when I got admitted to 22% today. Recall that last cycle the admit rate was 3.67% for Columbia and this year it's 3.73% so it's virtually the same ridiculous rate and I'm a stronger applicant.

The first 3 columns are my Post Graduate chancing rates after I've added all my new boarding school data for the 13th year of HS. And the last column is my range of guesses and the order I would put the schools in. For example Wellesley is 97% and Barnard is 25%, and I don't think that is accurate at all for either of them since they are super close in difficulty criteria. So I put them as 41/53. And Colby 18/Pomona 20/Swat 22/Colorado 25/Amherst 25 I think are all wrong as well in the wrong order. WestPoint/AirForce was 76/61 4 weeks ago and now they are inverted at 31/59, that makes no sense to me. Westpoint is a much easier school to get into than Cornell/JHU/UCBerkeley/Vandy.

Again, I'm don't think the CV engine has worked out the bugs. This will be a long work in progress so just use your own best judgement until they get it all sorted out. Use multiple sources to make an informed guesstimate of your chances. I just wanted to share how my logic works and the rationale I have for questioning some of these numbers and their order.

5/3/2022

Caltech 31%

Yale 32%

Harvard 33%

Pomona 34%

Swarthmore 34%

Stanford 36%

Princeton 36%

Bowdoin 37%

Columbia 37%

Brown 38%

Colby 39%

Duke 39%

Amherst 41%

Uchicago 42%

MIT 47%

Dartmouth 47%

Rice 48%

Nortwestern 49%

Williams 49%

Upenn 49%

CMC 49%

Johns Hopkins 52%

Colorado 55%

UC Berkeley 55%

Barnard 56%

UCLA 57%

Cornell 57%

Vanderbilt 59%

Air Force 61%

Grinnell 62%

Wash U 63%

Emory 64%

Carleton 65%

Tufts 66%

Middlebury 67%

Wash & Lee 67%

Notre Dame 69%

Davidson 70%

NorthEastern 73%

Westpoint 76%

Reed 77%

UVA 78%

Vassar 81%

Smith 82%

Wake Forest 83%

Umich 85%

Tulane 86%

NYU 86%

Boston U 86%

Wellesley 89%

Boston College 90%

UNC 90%

Macalester 91%

Mount Holyoke 94%

Syracuse 97%

6/5/2022/6/5/2022/6/5/2022/6/5/2022/6/5/2022/6/5/2022

CalTech 13%

Yale 15%

Harvard 17%

Princeton 18%

Columbia 18%

Brown 19%

Duke 20%

MIT 20%

Bowdoin 21%

Stanford 22%

Swarthmore 23%

Colby 24%

Uchicago 25%

Pomona 25%

Rice 26%

Amherst 27%

Dartmouth 27%

Upenn 28%

NorthWestern 29%

Williams 29%

Colorado 30%

Harvey Mudd 31%

Johns Hopkins 31%

CMC 33%

Cornell 33%

Barnard 33%

UC Berkeley 34%

WestPoint 37%

UCLA 40%

Vanderbilt 43%

Wash U 43%

Tulane 45%

Tufts 52%

Carleton 52%

USC 54%

Grinnell 55%

Davidson 57%

Wash & Lee 57%

Middlebury 57%

Air Force 57%

Hamilton 57%

Colgate 58%

Notre Dame 59%

Emory 63%

NorthEastern 64%

Vassar 64%

Umich 68%

NYU 68%

Reed 68%

UVA 71%

Boston Univ. 72%

Wake Forest 73%

Wellesley 76%

Boston College 76%

UNC 76%

6/6/2022/6/6/2022/6/6/2022/6/6/2022/6/6/2022/6/6/2022

Caltech 15%

Yale 18%

Colby 18%

Harvard 18%

Princeton 19%

Pomona 20%

Bowdoin 20%

Stanford 20%

MIT 21%

Duke 22%

Swarthmore 22%

Brown 22%

Columbia 23%

Colorado 25%

Barnard 25%

Amherst 25%

Uchicago 26%

Williams 29%

Dartmouth 29%

Upenn 29%

Rice 30%

NorthWestern 30%

Harvey Mudd 31%

CMC 31%

WestPoint 31%

JHU 34%

Cornell 34%

Tulane 34%

UC Berkeley 35%

Vanderbilt 38%

UCLA 40%

Carleton 44%

Grinnell 46%

Hamilton 47%

Wash & Lee 49%

Davidson 50%

Wash U 52%

Tufts 54%

Colgate 54%

Vassar 57%

Air Force 59%

Reed 60%

USC 60%

Notre Dame 62%

Emory 62%

UVA 65%

NorthEastern 65%

Middlebury 66%

Boston U 66%

U Mich 67%

NYU 69%

Wake Forest 71%

Boston College 72%

UNC 75%

Wellesley 97%

6/6/22 My Own Guessimate/Range/6/6/22 My Own Guessimate/Range/6/6/22 My Own Guessimate/Range

Harvard 18%-25%

Yale 19%-26%

Princeton 19%-28%

Stanford 20%-29%

Caltech 20%-30%

MIT 21%-32%

Columbia 22%-33%

Brown 23%-35%

Duke 24%-37%

Uchicago 25%-38%

Dartmouth 27%-40%

Upenn 29%-40%

Pomona 29%-42%

Amherst 29%-43%

Williams 29%-43%

Swarthmore 29%-44%

Northwestern 30%-45%

Johns Hopkins 34%-45%

Cornell 34%-48%

Bowdoin 35%-50%

Rice 36%-50%

Colby 38%-50%

CMC 39%-50%

Vanderbilt 40%-52%

Barnard 41%-55%

UC Berkeley 41%-55%

Harvey Mudd 43%-55%

UCLA 45%-60%

NYU 47%-60%

Emory 49%-60%

Tufts 50%-65%

Wash U 50%-65%

USC 52%-65%

Wellesley 53%-65%

Colorado College 55%-66%

Grinnell 55%-66%

Carleton 57%-67%

Hamilton 57%-67%

Boston University 57%-67%

WestPoint 58%-67%

Air Force 59%-67%

Notre Dame 59%-67%

Middlebury 60%-67%

Boston College 60%-69%

Colgate 63%-70%

UVA 65%-72%

Vassar 67%-75%

U Mich 68%-77%

Tulane 70%-80%

Wash. & Lee 71%-81%

Davidson 71%-83%

NorthEastern 72%-83%

Reed College 75%-85%

UNC 75%-85%

Wake Forest 76%-85%