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Can you reasonably assume a UC school to be a safety if you have stats that are above the 75th percentile?
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I have above average stats for three UC campuses and am wondering whether I can use one of them as a safety school. Especially thinking of UCSC, UC Merced, and UC Riverside

UCR
UCMerced
UCSC
UC

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Generally if your stats are above the 75th percentile, you can assume a school is a safety for you. That being said, a bunch of factors can impact whether or not a school is *really* safe, such as acceptance rate (top 20 schools can't really be a safety for anyone), your demographics (race, first-gen, income, in-state vs. out-of-state), whether the school considers demonstrated interest or practices yield protection. On top of that, many schools are going test-optional this year, which will make admissions even more volatile. If you have good test scores though, that will certainly help you - test-optional doesn't mean test-blind.

Long story short, you probably can consider UCSC, UC Merced, and UC Riverside safeties if your stats are above the 75th percentile, but watch out for factors like in-state vs. out-of-state. And make sure to still put together a solid application. Hope this helps!

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In the previous admission cycle yes, but not this one. The main reason is that UC schools are all test-optional so there will be more scrutiny on your GPA, essay, and academic rigor. Submitting high stats may help differentiate yourself between other candidates who do not submit but keep in mind if they have a better GPA, course rigor, essays, your stats may not be enough to auto-admit you.

SAT still affects admissions but yeh
Would CSU still be enough? Like SJSU/CSU Fullerton
Uh not San Jose or San Diego or Fresno but all other ones I’d say yes
But San Jose posts the minimum eligibility index. for my major, it's around 3800, and my eligibility index is 4875.
I’m not familiar with the index system but if that system holds true it very well might work idk
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For those schools mentioned yes but safety is not a garuntee but as rule of thumb any school with sub 40% admit rate is never a safety.

If your character is figuratively destroyed in a rec letter and or your essays are bad you it would kill even if you are a top 1% stat wise applicant

no rec letters for UC?
[edited]
Sorry I forgot UCs don’t care about rec letters but if you insult a teacher in an essay that doesn’t help in admissions to say the least
So, if I write pretty decent essays, I'd have a decent shot?
Essentially yes it may fluctuate due to COVId but you should have an above average chance I’d say 75% just becuase all UC schools are sub 70% admit if I remember correctly