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2 months ago
Admissions Advice
[edited]

Did anyone else’s admission chances go up.

I know vine just added more data and that’s why it changed, but figured it go down with recent competition for admissions. Are we finally seeing admissions going back to being reasonable.

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5 answers

4
2 months ago

Some of mine went up, then others went down. One of my target schools even downgraded to a safety school...

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0
2 months ago

The chancing engine is a work in progress that has its good updates and its not-so-good updates. I feel that this release is a better one than the last one which essentially tanked everyone's CV rates and dinged people on certain schools like the military academies and many liberal arts colleges as if they were Ivy League and Elite selections. I'm glad that has been corrected.

I feel the most difficult schools get right are the Top 50 schools because none of them besides Caltech and MIT are mostly meritocratic processes but holistic ones which examine dozens and dozens of data points. I think Ivys and Elites are the hardest ones to get right because there are so many factors at play. You can literally write a book on college admissions for 1 Ivy school and still not get it perfectly right.

The CV engine nevertheless is leaps and bounds better than anything else out there. There are a few things that are crucially important for some top schools that the CV engine can not capture correctly and they are:

-Character/Personal Qualities (you would have to create an online psych test to start to wrap your brain around this topic). Generally, Top colleges use Interviews, video submissions, recommendations and essays, and short answers to glean a sense of who the person is applying

-Writing ability and self-expression through essays and supplemental essays. This is not captured in the CV engine.

-Evidence of intellectual vitality and curiosity. This is not specifically captured in the CV engine but one can make some inferences based on the Tier of the ECs they are pursuing and succeeding at and the number of college courses they are taking in addition to HS curricula.

-Mitigating circumstances are not captured in the CV engine like if you are an orphan or foster child, have to take care of siblings, have limited time because you have to work to help your family pay the bills, whether you have a mental illness or debilitating physical issue. Or whether you suffered some tragedy or have ongoing trauma.

So be patient and understand that the CV engine might only get your % range within the accuracy of -/+ 5% or something close like that because it doesn't have all the input data that is captured in a common or coalition app to work with. Nevertheless, it's more accurate now than ever before.

Keep in mind the Chancing engine doesn't really know how many applications a college will get nor does it know up front if anything structural has changed with that college's admissions policy. For instance, it doesn't know up front if a college will accept more marginalized or hooked applicants than the previous cycle and how that will affect the acceptance rates of over-represented minorites. It doesn't know if a certain college receives a $50 million donation that will be used to admit more international students. Therefore keep in mind that you as a consumer should be keeping up to date with any news related to the colleges you are applying so you can be dialed into what's going on at campus.

I don't think acceptance rates are going up back to pre-pandemic rates. If anything they will keep going lower for Top50 or Top100 colleges because there is more demand to get into those colleges coming from all over the world. If you are an average student you probably will see some good deals out there because there is a lot of competition for Top500 or T1000 colleges to remain healthy and viable. So I can see rates going up for the middle-of-the-road colleges because there aren't as many HS seniors applying to schools as there were pre-pandemic. Just a lot of concentrated interest in the Top100 of the 4300 colleges that offer 4-year degrees.

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0
2 months ago

It did for me but it was somewhat strange. I found that in some schools, it did go up, but it went down for schools. It's more prominent in reach schools.

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2 months ago

My chances of admission to certain colleges actually decreased quite a bit. Mostly for reach schools, but they decreased all the same. I assume since they have taken different factors into play for their chancing engine like ED and test-blind schools, all of us will have different results.

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0
2 months ago

mine stayed the same so I don't know if it is going back to normal

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