I think I have a relatively good profile, but when I look at scholarship chances it always says unlikely

Answered

@GreenLobster

There are 2 distinct types of scholarships:

-Merit Scholarships are based on your GPA/Test Scores/Community Service/Leadership. More often than not, to qualify for a merit scholarship you have to have a 99% GPA and Test Scores. For example, say you have Syracuse on your list. Their admit rate is 55%, their 50% SAT range is 1230-1380 and their avg GPA is 3.69. But let's say you have a 1450 and a 3.8 which is well above their averages, so your CV chancing is 98%. But since Syracuse is not hugely endowed, and spends about 3 times as much on need-based aid as non-need-based aid, their thresholds to get a Merit Scholarship are quite high. So you might need a 1500+SAT and a 3.9+ GPA to get a decent Merit scholarship from a school like Syracuse. Hope that makes sense. I looked at the common data set for Syracuse and if you are a recruited athlete, the avg. the scholarship is like $60,000 so pretty much your tuition is covered. But the avg. merit scholarship was like $10,000 so hardly a drop in the bucket for most applicants.

-Need-based Scholarships are given out based on your family's ability to pay and their financial condition. This type of aid often requires lengthy supporting forms called the FAFSA and CSS profile before a college determines the level of aid. Less than 100 colleges out of 4300 give out use "need-blind" admissions (meaning that your ability to pay doesn't affect their decision to accept you) and "meet 100% of your financial need" (which means they will cover the costs after applying and federal and state grants and work-study, with a package of grants and sometimes a combination of grants and loans (both institutional and 3rd party). So if you apply to Syracuse for example, you might have a 98% chance of getting accepted but let's say you are not low income but middle income and your family makes $150,000. You will get financial aid but maybe not very much because their thresholds for need-based aid are lower than other schools with huge endowments. The average need-based scholarship at Syracuse is $49000 for the poor folk which still means they would have to take a loan of nearly $38,000 to attend each year. And only 1/2 of the people awarded need-based scholarships got a good amount, and most of them fell short of this number.

So if you are looking for Merit Scholarships, then your research has to begin with making a list of the schools that provide the best merit aid for you given your family income and stats. And if you are looking for need-based aid, then you have to research the best schools that offer the highest aid for your stats and family income.

Good luck.