Collegevine places equal odds for ED1 and ED1 for U Chicago. This contradicts many online anecdotes. How statistically robust is this prediction.
Also, odds are some for RD and EA at UChicago. Same issue
Do you mean that CollegeVine gives the same percentage of chances for EDI and EDII?
It's better to think of admissions less as raw percentage points and more as a multi-step application process. Our Chancing Engine works by comparing your quantifiable stats to those of recent applicants and past admitted students. It cannot, for instance, assess demonstrated interest or the quality of your essays.
And that's where Early Decision comes in. By applying early, you're demonstrating interest in the school and making yourself a desirable pick based off your increased chance of matriculation. (With students applying to more and more schools each year, colleges are finding it harder to limit acceptances to students that actually want to attend.) But, if some quantifiable aspect of your application still needs improvement — like a higher SAT score or some extracurricular accomplishments — then applying ED will not make up for that. Early Decision is more for students that already meet these thresholds and want to distinguish themselves from other qualified applicants.
Our Chancing Engine might adjust ED chancing for schools where it's weighted differently, but otherwise you shouldn't expect an Early Decision application to boost the sort of stats that go into your Chancing Engine. The admissions rates are a bit misleading in that regard, and I'd only apply ED if you're just that set on the school.
Hope that helps! Let me know if you have any questions.
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