accepted rate

Hi @metometo333_,

Let's clarify something before we start. Harvard's 3.19% acceptance rate must be divided into REA admits at 7.9% and RD at 2.3%. 740 were admitted through early action and most EA admits are ALDCs (recruited athletes, legacies, donor kids, and children of faculty). 1214 were accepted through the RD pool. Some of these admit as well are ALDCs. About 1/3 of Harvard undergrads are legacy admits so if 1954 were admitted to the class of 2026, then you know a minimum of 650 are legacies, and maybe another 200 are ADC part of ALDCs. So there are only about 1100 real spots for everyone else including "hooked" applicants ( black, Latina, indigenous, marginalized folk, low-income, first-gen ) who get a bump up. So that cuts into the admit pool of about 20% which is about 400 admits. So unless you are an ALDC or a "hooked" applicant at Harvard your admit rate is going to be like 700/61220 or 1.1%, not 3.19% or the incorrect 4% published here. Remember that even though Harvard has an 85% yield rate, 15% of admits or 300 turn down the offer and go to MIT, Stanford, Yale, and Columbia for many reasons including cultural fit, better major(s) fit, closer to home, etc.

Next, let's talk about CV's chancing engine. Frankly, it doesn't take into account Legacy bumps which can be quantified as about 10X bumps at Harvard. Some say a Legacy has on average a 30% acceptance rate compared to 3%. Also, Cv's chancing engine doesn't account for recruited athletes, donor kids, or children of faculty. Also, it does a poor job of quantifying the boost for "hooked" applicants. According to the Harvard lawsuit table if you are Black in the first 2 deciles of academics (testing, GPA, IV/IC, course rigor) you have a 55% chance of getting in while White (15%) /Asians (7%) probability based on past admit rates. On your CV, you will not see that significant amount of boost if you are a hooked applicant. Therefore, let's say you are Black, low-income, first-gen, and get a 1500 SAT, have a 4.0, and amazing ECs, your CV chancing might be 50%, not 16%. And let's say you are Asian and have the same stats but are not low-income, not first-gen, your CV chancing might be less than 7% because there a just way too many Asians in this demographic that are applying at the same time. And unfortunately, Harvards denies them more to make more for hooked applicants and ALDCs.

So what I'm saying is that the two numbers you are comparing are wrong, to begin with.

The 4% is actually somewhere between (1.1% and 30%) depending on whether you are a qualified legacy or not. And the 16% really is not a real number because CV doesn't capture enough data to give you a good result for Harvard. It's the best guess based on the limited data you fill out in your profile.

Doesn't that make sense?

If you are Black or Latina or Indigenous, and also a legacy, and played football at Phillips Exeter Academy and can walk on the Harvard team, and have say a 90% GPA and a 1350 SAT. My guess is that your admit rate is 90%.

If you are a Chinese American female, with a 1500 SAT and a 3.9 GPA and are not an ALDC, low-income, or first gen, then your admit rate would be 1%, not 4-16%.

This is why affirmative action is controversial. It's been an amazing opportunity for the last 20 years at Harvard for Black and Brown people. But unproductive for Asians. Nevertheless, the same rejected Asians almost always land at great schools. And this is why the Stats for other schools like CMU, JHU, Duke, Vandy, Tufts, WashU, and even many liberal arts colleges are so high. They are filled with Asians that didn't get into their top Ivy dream college.

Hi @metometo333_!

Your personal acceptance rate should be higher than the regular one. So your personal Harvard acceptance rate is 16% right? That means you have a 16% chance of being accepted to Harvard while the average person only has a 4% acceptance rate.

Here's another example - For Hofstra, the overall acceptance rate is a 68%. According to Collegevine, "This is the percentage of accepted students vs. all students who apply. The lower this number is, the harder it typically is to get accepted to the school. 68% is somewhat competitive." Then, my chances are a 93%. According to Collegevine, "Our calculator evaluates your profile like the way an admissions officer does — first, minimum academic requirements based on your demographic, then a holistic review." This is a calculation done by Collegevine themselves. They take in your extracurriculars, course rigor, etc. and calculate your chances.

So Harvard's 4% overall acceptance rate classifies it as a extremely competitive college. Out of X amount of applicants, only 4% of them got accepted. You have better chances (at 16%). You want your personal acceptance rate to be higher than the overall. That is a really good sign and means that you are competitive for that college.

Collegevine's personal acceptance rate calculations change frequently. On my list, I have Stony Brook University and every few weeks the calculations will update. Last week I had an 84% chance of being accepted (classifying it as a safety). Today, I have a 77% chance of being accepted (classifying it as a target).

Overall, you want a high personal chancing percentage and Collegevine's personal chancing percentages change frequently, so be sure to check your list often... I hope I was able to help you! Please respond if you have more questions, I'd be glad to help!

Great