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If the Chance tool predicts a school as a safety, does it reliably indicate I’m in good standing?
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, [edited]

I’m going to be a senior this upcoming year.

I recently used Chancing to calculate my chance of admission to my #1 school, University of Wisconsin Madison.

It says my chances are at 88-92% (safety) which seems extremely optimistic.

My SAT is 1230 compared to Wisconsin whose average is 1360 and lower end of the middle 50% is 1280.

My GPA is 3.69 compared to Wisconsin’s average of 3.80.

My course load is impressive as by the end of senior year I will have completed at least 11 honors courses, 10 AP courses, and 2-4 courses at the University of Pittsburgh.

My extracurriculars are very good as I hold leadership positions in multiple Soccer organizations (one community, one regional among 3 different states). I also play soccer competitively for a club although I don’t letter varsity or JV as I chose other activities over school sport. I play Trumpet for my High School’s Marching Band (and organized sheet music for our stand songs if it looks more impressive) and university of Pittsburgh pep band as well playing Piano for Carnegie Mellon University (I at a level where I can play the tougher pieces of composers like Chopin, Rachmaninov, Mozart etc.). I’m also in Model UN. Those are the bigger ECs, although I have a couple more.

I’m half Taiwanese half Ashkenazi Jewish (Practicing), although I’m not sure if it took that into account.

I’m from a wealthier middle class family in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, although I attend an urban public school where around half of the students are low income.

But does my impressive extracurriculars, extremely heavy course load and diversity (idk if Asian Jew is something that looks good or not) overcome my poor SAT score and below average GPA?

Also when I see my prediction for University of Illinois Champaign, a school with similar if not more lenient score averages, it predicts 70-80% (Target), which I don’t understand.

So overall the main question is does the chancing tool reliably tell me I’m in very good standing to gain admission to University of Wisconsin Madison when they put me at 88-92 (safety)?

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[edited]
So demographics play a huge part if I made my self black at Michigan I have 80% chance as white I have 15% so it is impactful and if you identify as bi-racial that may have cuased an artificial boost that should likely not be there.
I set it to Asian and it gave me the same thing- Safety for Wisconsin. Illinois on the other hand changed to a reach (20-30%). Is it possible Wisconsin is looking for more Asians because of a lack of diversity?
Honestly I don’t know but that could be as Wisconsin is midwest while Illinois is more Chicago area focused and has greater diversity honestly I’m baffled. If you don’t mind me asking what is your chance for Michigan?
It has Michigan as a HEAVY reach for me
If I may ask do you consider yourself biracial? that may give you an edge since you are technically 1/2 asian 1/2 ethnic jewish/white.. I apologize if this is rude I am just wondering if this is something you’ve looked into.
Yeah I initially put Biracial and it gave me Wisconsin as a safety
I think that might be why cause biracial is so uncommon nowadays... either way I would say don’t think of it as a safety but more of a goal where you wanna stay in that target range. your sat is a bit low but nothing terrible and if you can’t re take it then work hard on developing your profile and essays
Yeah, I signed up for the August SAT and have been studying everyday. But if that gets canceled it’s likely Wisconsin will go test optional anyway. Thanks either way!
no problem! just make sure you’re studying effectively rather than just staring at a book for hours each day cause sometimes after studying for so long you can get stuck in that loop. good luck!

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Accepted answer

I would say that you should be in good standing. You should still work hard on your essays to stand out, but you should have a pretty good shot of admission.

@adri hits it on the head