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Why are my estimates for Ivy League schools so high?
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,

When I go to my dashboard, it shows that schools like Harvard, Dartmouth, and MIT are hard Target schools. I am very confused by this, as a couple of days ago it said that all these schools were long reach. Keep in mind that I have not changed anything about my profile, it is the exact same as it was before.

For reference, I am a rising Sophomore and my unweighted GPA is 3.9, I haven't taken the SAT or any SAT classes but my practice tests are around the 1450s, my coursework by senior year will be 7 AP classes, 18 Honors classes, and 2 College course taken at a community college, and my extracurriculars are 3 D tier, 4 F tier, and 3 I tier. I am currently planning to add 2-3 C tiers that I'm still working on but they aren't (and have never been) in collegevine yet.

I am just confused on why these ivies (or ivy level) schools are targets instead of reaches. I'm hoping that someone can tell me why these estimates are so high and what my actual estimates are based on what I wrote above.

schools
reach
IvyLeague
Your demographics can be a major factor that can swing your chances — what are those for you?
My demographics are: Race: Prefer not to say, Gender: Female, Intended major: Computer Science, Financial Aid: Don't Know Yet
oh also/ i had the same thing happen where my 15-20% schools (ivys) jumped to 40% so i think it’s a mistake in the algorithm OR they’re chancing it to reflect the covid situation but i don’t rlly know why this is occurring

2 answers

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Accepted answer

I can't explain what is happening with College Vine's algorithm, but the same thing just happened on my son's profile. Schools that had been reaches (or long reaches) last week are now being listed as targets, or hard targets, even though nothing changed in his profile. In his case, I'm pretty sure that the prior estimates are correct - those schools are still reaches and long reaches and didn't suddenly become targets. With Ivy League schools, I don't think anyone is ever really considered a "target" given their extremely low admissions stats, regardless of anything on your profile, so I would assume that those schools are still reaches for you (as they would be for everyone).

Interested to know if someone from College Vine might be able to answer what's happening with their model on the back end, as it's clearly something.

answered on
2
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Since you are a rising Soph, CV chancing only uses 1 full year of data for you so it can't possibly be very accurate. For most CV members, they have uploaded 3 full years of data with actual test scores and in my opinion, none of the schools you've listed would ever be hard target except for Dartmouth if you had higher stats like a 1500+SAT/34+ACT, 8-10 APs with mostly 5s, and SAT II scores like 750-800 on 3 tests and tier 3 and 4 ECs. But Harvard/MIT should always be a reach since their acceptance rate is 4.5-7% and they are historically some of the toughest schools to get into. More than 50% of Harvard applicants have near-perfect stats all around. I think chancing gets more accurate as you input more years of data. Next year it will be more accurate for you and when you are a rising Sr., most accurate. Until then focus on finding your Spikes and improving your talents and holding your grades.

What i’ll add is by not listing your race this throws off the whole thing since you’re compared to the benchmark sat/act and gpa for YOUR RACE. you don’t have to list it here but please note colleges will know of your race and use that to form the basis of their evaluation of you on a comparison level. if you input different races on CV your chances will vary a lot so keep in mind the %s may not be accurate. I really don’t think they should be that high either. At this point maybe you’re 20%...
... cause the only place i see a massive gap is your sat which shuu i is really be at least 70 points higher. True you’re 14 and you just finished freshman year so you have one whole year to prep for/take the SAT, so it should be higher by then. (also sophomore english H was a huge help with the writing and language section for me)... basically i would put your chances at slightly below mine cause we have the same stats except for sat; so in the 15-25%. your ECs also need work but honestly ...
colleges don’t “tier” your EXs so much as they look for commitment, leadership roles, personal connection/connection to major, and how impressive they are. your ECs should also flow into some sort of story about what your passionate about and how you took initiative/action to turn it into something meaningful... anyways, sophomore year is really where you figure this stuff out, try to relax for now :)