How accurate are the admissions chances calculators on this website?
For example, CollegeVine says to go to school X I have a 50 to 60% chance. Is that completely accurate or is there something they haven't considered? Has anyone here gotten into college already who can testify to the legitimateness of the displayed numbers?
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The chancing calculator here is one of the best out there. That being said, there are many factors that it does not consider, like recommendation letters and essays. So of course it is not completely accurate as it is only based on test scores, GPA, course rigor, activities, and demographics. But it is fairly accurate for what it can do. Think of the chances for your schools from this as a baseline that can improve or lower based on other aspects of your application.
Hi there! We're happy to explain how our chancing works and how we know it's accurate. I'll link a full blog post below, but here's an overview:
Our chancing engine accounts for over 75 factors, including objective criteria like grades and test scores, but also other factors like extracurriculars, race/ethnicity, gender, major, and home state.
Our model provides a probability of acceptance based on the latest admissions data. If you get a 30% chance for a school, then that means about 3 in 10 students with similar profiles will be accepted. We’re happy to report that our model has been very accurate in the past; for example, when we said students had a 30% chance at a specific school, 28.7% of the people from that group actually got accepted.
While we can’t account for every admissions factor, you can adjust your expectations based on the components we don’t yet include in our model. For example, we don’t yet account for essays, but if a student knows their essays are better than the average accepted student, their actual chances are likely higher.
With the knowledge of your competitiveness, you can build a healthy school list and increase your chances of being accepted to at least one of your choices.
If you’d like more info, take a look at this recent blog post where we explain how our chancing engine works more in-depth: https://bit.ly/communitychancing. Let me know if you have any questions!
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