My Johns Hopkins chances are 33-45% according to CollegeVine. How would that change if I applied early decision. (Not a chance-me because I can't find this information from the chancing calculator). What's a good estimate for how much the chances would increase if I applied ED or EA to other schools
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There is no clear-cut correlation chart or a concordance chart that CV provides for RD to ED/EA/SCREA so you have to just make an educated guess.
If JHU's ED acceptance rate is 3-4X higher than RD, and it is your top choice, then ED is the best cycle to apply there. I don't think you multiply 3X or 4X to 33%-45% because you'd get a number over 100% and no school is a sure thing especially T20 schools with 10% acceptance rates. Some folks think that JHU uses yield protection strategies so I don't know how that factors in either. I would guess it is a coin toss at 50% or so. And that's darn good.
Good luck with your admissions journey.