What do I do if my chances are pretty low for a lot of schools on my list?

Answered

I really agree with trackmaster82. Remember that you're applying to a bunch of schools and so those probabilities across like 8 schools can yield a few acceptances (statistics ftw!). Also remember that there is some randomness in the decision (like if an AO is having a bad day or just doesn't like your essay) -- you'll never see over like 60% chances for very competitive schools individually for that reason (but again, across a few schools that randomness can cancel out). Good luck!!!

Have a good mix of competetive schools, and maybe choose around 3 safety schools that you'd feel comfortable applying to. I'm using myself as an example. So I would apply to

Reach schools:

UC Berkeley

Brown

Target Schools

UCLA

UCSB

UCD

UCI

Safety Schools:

SJSU

UCSC

Make sure you actually would want to go to your safety school picks. They don't have to be your top 5, but just make sure you're comfortable with them.

Here is the thing to remember: If you apply to a bunch of schools and chances like 40%, then like @trackmaster82 said, you can probably have a very good chance of getting in.

I am applying to a range of safety schools, target schools, and two very unlikely schools (USC and Duke University). It is nearly impossible for me to get into those two schools, but I figure that I'll try to get in. What do I have to lose? (Besides $80 dollars an application, some of my remaining sanity, and several hours of my time...)

Anything can happen - from the AO having a great day and just going "YAY" on your application, to the opposite. Although it is super hard to avoid it, do not take rejection personally. Always reach, if possible - like you said, what have you go to lose? Remember, an overall acceptance rate may be 10%, but a bunch of those applying may never have had a chance anyway, and many people flood colleges now with the Common Application (which is why the chancing simulator is helpful, but it is still just a simulator)!

I think 40% is actually very good. Almost even odds? Far better than you'll ever get in Vegas! Remember - you WILL be admitted somewhere, you WILL get your education, and you WILL go on!

similar to what everyone else said, I would look into a few safeties and a few targets so you have fallbacks if you don't get into any of your reach schools, however, across multiple schools, you'll probably have a good chance at getting into at least one of your reaches!

I'd try adding a nearby school like Iowa if you are a desmoines resident in iowa so you'd be accepted into more than 1 school