My chancing results look like this. I find that many schools are not intuitively where they should be. Maybe someone has had similar results and can explain what the changes are to the revised algorithm. I'm 100% committed to Columbia but if I applied now, CMC, Pomona, Swarthmore would be harder. And that Princeton, Stanford, MIT would be easier. I wouldn't think the 2 UC schools are only 2% higher than MIT/UPenn or that Colby would be harder than Vandy,JHU and Cornell.
Pomona 35%, Yale 36%, Swarthmore 37%, CalTech 39%, Harvard/CMC 40%, Columbia 41%, Brown/Duke 42%, Stanford/Bowdoin 44%, Princeton/UChic/Williams 45%, Dartmouth 47%, Amherst 48%, Rice/NWestern/UPenn/MIT 49%, Colby 50%, UCLA/UCBerkeley 51%, Vanderbilt/Colorado/JHU 52%, Barnard 54%, Middlebury/Cornell 55%
I know that Top 25 admit rates are converging one on top of another and within a few cycles will all be under 5% but I'm still curious what going on behind the scenes.
UPDATE: There must have been a new version today 2/23/22. Now the list looks like:
Caltech/Yale 29%, Harvard 31%, Princeton/Stanford 33%, Columbia/Brown 35%, Pomona/Duke 36%, Swarthmore/Colby 37%, Bowdoin 38%, Amherst 39%, UChicago 40%, MIT 42%, Dartmouth 44%, Rice 45%, NWestern/UPenn 46%, Williams 47%, CMC/JHU 48%, Barnard 53%, Cornell 54%, ULCA 55% Colorado/UC Berkeley/Vanderbilt 56%,
I still think its problematic that UPenn/NWestern/MIT/UChicago/Dartmouth (4%-6% schools) are easier schools than Colby/Pomona/Swarthmore/Bowdoin and Amherst (8% schools) There is no way.
Also CalTech and MIT have the same acceptance rates and criteria. No way is there 13% difference between the two. Either the both should be the same 42% or MIT should be slightly harder to get into which it is.
@CameronBameron Wait yeah my chances got moved around a lot (mostly they decreased but some increased) Harvard went from 22% to 15%, while Yale only went from 20% to 17% but Vanderbilt went from 34% to 38% and Cornell stayed exactly the same.
How about UPenn, isn't that one of your top choices?
Oh yeah Upenn went from 26% to 24%, but since im applying to Wharton it may be different
At this point, I wouldn't worry about it at all, I'm sure CV will fix it and make a better version over the summer before your senior year.
Oh no no I think its a good thing- I think my 15% chance at Harvard is more accurate than a 22%
my results are not even close to yours, except Barnard where I am at 65%
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