How difficult is it to get into University of Michigan-Ann Arbor? (Need brutal honesty)

I'm wondering if I should even consider applying to UMich at all. It seems a bit of a reach for me as I don't have any good stats and I'm pretty much just an average student.

As a senior, I currently have Honors Chemistry, AP Gov, AP Calculus AB, IB ELA HL (and also possibly IB Visual Arts SL).

Junior year I had AP Precalculus and Honors ELA, and my freshman year I had honors geometry (which I didn't do good in).

I don't have any impressive or long-lasting extracurriculars other than a few random clubs and some occasional volunteer hours.

I got a 1200 score on my SAT (probably won't submit it). I am also in-state.

I kinda already know these "stats" aren't good enough to get into a school like UMich and was curious if an essay could make up for it? If so, tips on essays would be GREATLY appreciated!!

PLEASE BE HONEST!!! I need constructive criticism now more than ever :(